Second, the reported number of COVID-19 deaths underestimates the excess deaths produced by the pandemic. With COVID-19 mortality rates now exceeding these thresholds, this infectious disease has become deadlier than heart disease and cancer, and its lethality may increase further as transmission increases with holiday travel and gatherings and with the intensified indoor exposure that winter brings. 6 As occurred in the spring, COVID-19 has become the leading cause of death in the United States (daily mortality rates for heart disease and cancer, which for decades have been the 2 leading causes of death, are approximately 17 deaths per day, respectively 4). Between November 1, 2020, and December 13, 2020, the 7-day moving average for daily COVID-19 deaths tripled, from 826 to 2430 deaths per day, and if this trend is unabated will soon surpass the daily rate observed at the height of the spring surge (2856 deaths per day on April 21, 2020). First, the Table presents the aggregate 8-month mortality rate for COVID-19, not the current mortality rate, which has been increasing rapidly. In contrast, for individuals younger than age 45 years, other causes of death, such as drug overdoses, suicide, transport accidents, cancer, and homicide exceeded those from COVID-19.Įspecially for older adults, the threat from COVID-19 may be even greater, for 3 reasons. Adults 45 years or older were more likely to die from COVID-19 during those months than from chronic lower respiratory disease, transport accidents (eg, motor vehicle fatalities), drug overdoses, suicide, or homicide. The Table shows that by October 2020 COVID-19 had become the third leading cause of death for persons aged 45 through 84 years and the second leading cause of death for those aged 85 years or older. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Table shows mortality rates for these conditions during the period of March through October 2018 4 (the most recent year for which detailed cause-of-death data are available) with COVID-19 mortality rates during March through October 2020. 3 The conditions listed in the Table include the 3 leading causes of death in each of the 10 age groups from infancy to old age. The daily US mortality rate for COVID-19 deaths is equivalent to the September 11, 2001, attacks, which claimed 2988 lives, 1 occurring every 1.5 days, or 15 Airbus 320 jetliners, 2 each carrying 150 passengers, crashing every day.Ī helpful approach to put the effects of the pandemic in context is to compare COVID-19–related mortality rates with the leading causes of death that, under ordinary circumstances, would pose the greatest threat to different age groups. The news media dutifully report each day’s increase in new cases and deaths, but putting these numbers in perspective may be difficult. The current exponential increase in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is reaching a calamitous scale in the United States, potentially overwhelming the health care system and causing substantial loss of life.
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